HOW IT WORKS
Prior to the release of the company's actual earnings number, there are 'speculations' about what that number will be. The mainstream media reports on the 'analysts estimate'. This number is the combined estimate of the analysts covering that particular public company.
WhisperNumber.com, however, provides investors with different type of earnings 'speculation'. The 'whisper number' is the combined earnings expectation of individual investors for a particular public company.
Post Earnings 'Reaction'
Many investors believe that beating or missing the speculative earnings numbers have the greatest impact on stock movement. If the number is exceeded, the stock is rewarded and prices move higher. If the number is missed, the stock is punished and prices move lower.
But unlike the analysts estimate, the 'whisper number' from WhisperNumber.com has actually been
proven to have a greater impact on stock movement. In comparison, the analysts estimate has much less of an impact on stock movement.
This simply means a stock price is more likely to move higher when the company exceeds the whisper number, and lower when it misses. This is not an 'opinion' or a statement made based on an internal analysis. This is proven in the results of an independent, university study (
click here to view study).
The Analysis & Service
So we now know price volatility is (at least partially) due to a company exceeding or falling short of investor expectations (whisper number).
But we also know that not all companies react to beating or missing the whisper. Some companies always see positive price movement following earnings. Some always see negative price movement following earnings. And some just go whatever direction they please for that quarter.
WhisperNumber.com has put together those companies most likely to see price volatility according to whether or not they beat or miss the whisper. These companies have a high probability of positive price movement following the earnings report if they beat the whisper number, and negative price movement if they miss the whisper number.
Some companies will see the best price movement or 'price reaction' within one trading day. Others may see the best price reaction within thirty trading days. We've analyzed and found the best reaction timeframe for these high probability reactors. We've also analyzed best average price movement during that timeframe.
Reactor Example
Take a look at the following Whisper Reactor example:
According to our data, H&R Block (HRB) was considered a ten day reactor to the whisper number prior to their earnings report of 6/21/07. That means the company saw the best returns within a ten day trading period following earnings. The company reported earnings that beat the whisper number. This is the alert we sent to our subscribers:
"10-day classic reactor H&R Block (HRB) reported earnings yesterday before market open. The company reported earnings of $1.81. This was seven cents short of the analysts estimate but six cents ahead of the whisper number. The average 10-day price move when exceeding the whisper is +4.4%. We'll look to enter the long position at today's (6/22) open, and exit within nine trading days or sooner at discretion." |
HRB realized gains of 3.6% between our entry date of 6/22 (market open of 21.73) and our exit date nine trading days later at 22.51 (market close). We ended up just short of our 4.4% target, but that is just an average to show potential and not an absolute. (A recent alert issued for for HRB in 2008 showed a +13% return!)
Results
| Reactors |
YTD 2008 |
Jan. thru Dec. 2007 |
Aug. thru Dec. 2006 |
Total Returns |
| 1-day |
+60.8% |
+6.5% |
+27.6% |
+94.9% |
| 5-day |
+45.6% |
+18.7% |
+24.7% |
+89.0% |
| 10-day |
+122.9% |
+38.8% |
+18.3% |
+180.0% |
| 20-day |
+37.7% |
+18.8% |
+12.8% |
+69.4% |
| 30-day |
+133.6% |
+118.2% |
+30.5% |
+282.4% |
| Major Indices Comparative: |
YTD 2008 |
Jan. thru Dec. 2007 |
Aug. thru Dec. 2006 |
|
| Dow |
-32.0% |
+6.4% |
-0.7% |
|
| S&P |
-34.4% |
+3.5% |
+0.1% |
|
| Nasdaq |
-33.2% |
+9.8% |
+3.9% |
|
It truly is a great service that can help you capitalize on the price volatility expected during earnings season. It's proven, credible, and timely data with results to back it up.
Simply put, the Whisper Reactors service provides those companies that have the greatest historical reaction accuracy to beating and missing the whisper number within specific time frames and showing appropriate price reaction. It's the most comprehensive and powerful data we've ever offered.
